Iran’s crude oil exports have experienced a notable decline in October, as the nation anticipates possible consequences following its missile strike on Israel on October 1. With discussions emerging about potential Israeli actions targeting Iranian oil facilities, exports have fallen to approximately 600,000 barrels per day during the first ten days of the month—around one-third of recent averages.
Historically, this period sees between 5 to 8 tankers loading; however, only 3 to 4 vessels have been dispatched this month, according to insights from Vortexa oil risk analyst Armen Azizian. As a precautionary measure, Iran has repositioned several empty tankers away from Kharg Island, as evidenced by satellite imagery and tracking data from TankerTrackers. This has contributed to the slowdown in exports.
“The initial ten days have been markedly different from our usual observations,” Azizian commented, as referenced by Argus. “Typically, we expect to see 5 to 8 tankers loading during this timeframe, a mix of VLCCs and Suezmaxes. To date, however, we have only witnessed 3 to 4 loading.”
While Iran achieved robust export levels in previous months—reaching a peak of 1.83 million barrels per day in September—October’s figures are anticipated to fall short of this benchmark. Even with a potential return to normal loading operations, it is unlikely that Iran will surpass 1.35 million barrels per day by month’s end. This situation underscores the sensitivity of oil exports amidst geopolitical fluctuations.
Most analysts concur that OPEC producers with available capacity, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, would be well-positioned to offset any market gaps resulting from interruptions in Iranian exports.
In light of these developments, Iran has extended offers to China—one of its primary crude oil partners following the imposition of sanctions—proposing to sell its crude at a narrower discount to Brent, thereby increasing its price by up to $1 more per barrel.
Story via Oilprice.com